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POPULATION DECLINE
In demography population decline is a fall in a region's population. It can be caused by sub-replacement fertility (along with limited immigration) or heavy emigration, or more dramatically disease, famine, or war. Most often it is caused by a combination of these factors.
In the past population decline was mostly observed due to disease. The Black Death in Europe, the arrival of Old World diseases to the Americas, and the Irish Potato Famine (1845-1849) all caused massive population declines.
Today it is emigration and especially sub-replacement fertility rates that are causing population decline. A vast continuous swath of nations today are experiencing population decline, stretching from North Asia (Japan) through to Eastern Europe through Russia including Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Georgia, Armenia, Romania, Serbia, Bosnia, Croatia, Slovenia, and Hungary. Together these nations occupy over 8 million square miles and are home to over 400 million people, but if current trends continue much of the developed world and some of the developing will be joining them. Many nations in Western Europe today would have declining populations if it were not for international immigration. In addition, it is not clear due to lack of accurate statistics whether nations in southern Africa have declining populations due to the AIDS crisis there.
The population of former Soviet Republics, with the exception of Muslim majority nations and oil rich Azerbaijan, is falling due to health factors and low replacement. Much of Eastern Europe has lost population due to migration to Western Europe. Japan's situation is solely related to low replacement.
The effects of a declining population are bad for an economy, but fewer humans have a smaller impact on the environment. Declining population does have many problems, which may or may not be as severe as overpopulation.
Economically declining populations lead to deflation, which has a number of harmful effects. For an agricultural economy the average standard of living, at least in terms of material possessions, will tend to rise as the amount of land and resources per person will be higher. But for an industrial economy the opposite will be true as those economies thrive on growth.
The period immediately after the Black Death, for instance, was one of great prosperity, as many had inheritances from many different family members. However that situation was not comparable, as it did not have a continually declining population, but rather a sudden shock, followed by population increase, which economically is quite good.
A declining population due to demographics also will be accompanied by population ageing which contributes to many problems for a society. The decade long economic malaise of Japan and Germany is often linked to these demographic problems. The worst case scenario is underpopulation where the population falls to too low a level to support the current economic system.
A smaller national population can also have geo-strategic effects, but the correlation between population and power is a loose one.
National efforts to reverse declining populations
"President Vladimir V. Putin directed Parliament on Wednesday to adopt a 10-year program to stop the sharp decline in Russia's population, principally by offering financial incentives and subsidies to encourage women to have children.", "Australia offers a $4,000 bonus for every baby, and recently proposed to pay all child care costs for women who want to work. Many European countries, including France, Italy and Poland, have offered some combination of bonuses and monthly payments to families. Some Japanese localities, facing near catastrophic population loss, are offering rich incentives. Yamatsuri, a town of 7,000 just north of Tokyo, offers parents $4,600 for the birth of a child and $460 a year for 10 years. Singapore has a particularly lavish plan: $3,000 for the first child, $9,000 in cash and savings for the second; and up to $18,000 each for the third and fourth."New York Times
Further reading
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